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Time for another war over Kosovo?
Serbia’s recent history has been very turbulent. Over the past 16 years, it has not only lost its territories of Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia-Hercegovina, Macedonia and Montenegro, but also its access to the sea. Its economy still suffers from the long wars it fought over some of these territories. The ultra-nationalist (and thus also pro-war) Serbian Radical Party won the election back in January of 2007, but lacked enough votes to form a majority, and needed to form a coalition government. The compromise was Vojislav Kostunica, a Pro-EU, but still Anti-independent Kosovo, prime minister. He was seen as the preferred candidate, as he was far more moderate than some of his opponents. A sigh of relief came from the “Western Powers” with his win.
But that didn’t last too long. Recently, Kosovo held an election. The winner appears to be (as votes need to be verified by the U.N.) a man by the name of Hashim Thaci. He ran on a platform, saying that at the earliest possible moment, he will declare the complete independence of Kosovo. He also, during the 90’s, formed a group called the “Drenica-Group”. This group was involved in an estimated 10%-15% of all crime related activity in Kosovo, as well as attacking Serbian police forces on several occasions. This man was also sentenced to be kicked out of the country for 10 years. His past speaks for itself.
The magic day is going to be December 10th. This is the day Thaci said he will declare independence for Kosovo. This is also the day that the U.N. writes a report on the recommendations it has for Kosovo. Everyone is asking for more time, and to make the process slower. Will Thaci budge?
Now heres the set-up. Serbia will not recognize Kosovo’s independence, but wants to grant it more autonomy. Kosovo wants independence. Kosovo’s population is 90% ethnic Albanian, and 10% ethnic Serbian, with a tiny part of the north being the Serb part, and the southern part being Albanian. Serbs claim to fear that if Kosovo becomes independent, it will destabilize the whole region because it will encourage other secessionist Albanian movements in other countries. Macedonia has a moderate Albanian population that Serbia believes will also attempt to break away with Kosovo and form a “Greater Albania”. An interesting thing about Kosovo is that the older generation see themselves as Albanian, but the younger generation (such as students) see themselves as Kosovar, as thats a reference of being from Kosovo. They acknowledge they speak Albanian and have a similar history, but they also have a Kosovar identity. Is that joining up with Albania even desired?
As for the major powers, the U.S. wants an independent Kosovo, the U.N. and E.U. want more debates, and Russia sides with Serbia and will not support an independent Kosovo. Vojislav Kostunica, prime minister of Serbia says “These negotiations have lasted for two years. The way they started is the way they must end — in the Security Council.” Sounds reasonable right? Letting the U.N. decide? Well, the security council is split because of the U.S. and Russia. Kostunica is a clever man by trying to sound reasonable and patient, but really he knows there is no way Russia will back an independent Kosovo.
Or who knows? maybe what the great powers do won’t even matter. Various paramilitary groups on both sides are threatening to cause trouble, no matter what the U.N., Kosovo, or Serbia decides.
Quick update!
i got lazy over thanksgiving weekend, but i should be getting on a better blogging schedule shortly. expect at least 4 posts this week. 
A Quickie: Basic Economic Understanding
i read an article the other day on Walmart , where it stated that their profits this quarter rose 8 percent. It stated that part of the reason why it went up was not only because of increased sales, but also because of controlling wages. Now think for a moment. Usually what controlling wages means is that they give little or no salary increases… or worse, higher new workers at lower rates. If you have to jip your employees who are only making 8.00-10.50 an hour out of his/her 25 cent raise per hour to make a profit, your business is not doing well. If you keep lowering or maintaining your workers salary, they won’t be able to buy anything, hence the economic slump we are in now. Granted, Walmart jobs are low-skilled jobs, and can easily be replaced, but do you really want to punish people for doing their jobs? They still work hard, many hours a day.
Thinking Critically about Iran
This topic is a very complicated one. Lets assume for a moment, we don’t know anything truthful about Iran; Whether or not it’s Shiite, whether or not they are supplying groups in Iraq with munitions and training, and whether or not they are “evil” as Bush would call them. Lets just look at Iran, for a moment, as a country with its own situation. If you were a 2nd tier nation, and you wanted to become one of the “Great Powers”, what would you do, or be willing to do, to achieve that? In your general geographic area, who are you most threatened by? What are your main sources of income? Are there certain domestic troubles or ideologies that are pushing you in one direction or the other?
The first and most important goal for any given country, is its need to be independent. If your borders are being threatened, you, as a country, would do as you deem necessary to preserve those borders. In Iran’s case, not only do you have Israel in your backyard which “may or may not have nukes” as they like to say, but now you have a Super Power on your doorstep as well. That would make any country with whom you have poor relations with start to become very defensive, and in a sort of survival mode. Does becoming a nuclear power preserve your borders? No country that has nuclear capabilities has been fully conquered, however there is a little asterisk there. India and Pakistan (both of them nuclear powers) have been at a standoff for years over Kashmir, and have had skirmishes.
Iran’s main source of income is oil. With gas prices reaching almost $100 a barrel, Iran’s profits are skyrocketing. Iran’s infrastructure is in poor shape though, and they could be profiting a lot more from it. Assuming for a moment their nuclear ambitions are completely civilian, having nuclear plants provide most of your domestic supply needs would allow you to export even more oil, and thus more money. A country can’t live off of oil alone forever, as we all know, so having a more diversified economy is beneficial to any nation.
To be able to tackle the Iran problem in a mature way, we must be able to see the other side of the story, to understand what the other side could be thinking. This piece is in no way intended to be an appeal to be more sympathetic to the regime, but is intended to make you think of other possibilities, and to make better arguments either for, or against, Iran.
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